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Your guide to what Trump’s second term means for Washington, business and the world
Donald Trump’s decision to join Israel and attack Iran last week has sparked fears of conflagration in the Middle East and roiled global energy markets.
Since February 28, the US and Israel have fired thousands of munitions at Iran, killing the Islamic republic’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a number of other regime leaders.
In response, Tehran has fired at drones and ballistic missiles at America’s regional allies and threatened to attack vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, all but halting energy exports through the key shipping channel.
The effects of the conflict are being felt across America, with potentially far-reaching consequences for the president. Below are five charts showing the war’s impact in the US.
Public opinion
The war is unpopular in the US, although there is a stark partisan divide, with a majority of Republicans backing Trump’s attack on Iran. An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, conducted through March 4, found 56 per cent of Americans were against the military action. According to that survey, 86 per cent of Democrats opposed it, while 84 per cent of Republicans supported it.
Other polling in the immediate aftermath of the initial military strikes had similar results. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found 43 per cent of Americans opposed the war while 27 per cent supported it, with many unsure. It also found 56 per cent thought Trump used “too much” military force in general.
A CNN survey found a net 59 per cent of Americans disapproved of the war, while the Washington Post reported 52 per cent were opposed and 9 per cent were unsure.
Markets
US stocks have been volatile all week. The S&P 500 fully recovered from a steep drop on Tuesday, only to fall again on Thursday. It fell further on Friday following a worse than expected jobs report, taking its loss for the week to 2 per cent — its worst run since October.
Certain sectors have fallen more steeply. Consumer staples were among the worst-performing stocks as energy prices surged, rattling global financial markets.
Energy prices
The war with Iran has resulted in what energy analysts have long feared: a threat to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway where a fifth of global oil regularly transits. Since the start of the conflict, traffic through the strait has dropped precipitously, causing oil prices to jump to their highest level since 2023.
Attacks on key energy facilities in the region, which have forced the largest LNG plant in Qatar and one of Saudi Arabia’s most important oil refineries to shut down, have also pushed up prices.
In the US, retail petrol prices on Friday reached $3.38 per gallon, a 13 per cent increase from the start of the war and the highest level over Trump’s first and second term, according to GasBuddy data.
More expensive petrol risks further frustrating voters who are concerned about affordability and inflation ahead of November’s midterm elections.
The economy
Soaring energy prices because of shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are sparking fears of a broader economic fallout around the world. For oil-importing economies, including Europe, the UK and Japan, higher energy prices are inflationary.
That is driving more investors to the American dollar as a haven asset because the US, a net exporter of oil and gas, is more protected from rising global energy prices.
Still, elevated petrol prices for American consumers have added to concerns that the Federal Reserve could delay interest rate cuts even though market expectations improved slightly after unexpectedly weak job numbers on Friday.
The military
Despite promising “no new wars” on the campaign trail, Trump’s second term has seen a drastic expansion of overseas military action.
In the past year, the US has undertaken military campaigns from air strikes on alleged drug-smuggling boats in South America to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
But the war in Iran stands out for its open-ended nature and wide-ranging and constantly shifting goals. These have ranged from ending Tehran’s ballistic missile programme to regime change.
Trump has said the Iran war is projected to last four to five weeks but could also continue for “far longer”.
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