Survey Monday
How much more upside is there? Bitcoin is up 86% YTD, topping the S&P 500’s return of 26%. What level will BTC-USD reach over the next year, and should investors see the need for crypto exposure in their portfolios?
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Crypto First
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) topped the $80,000 level over the weekend, becoming one of the most prominent “Trump trades” in the aftermath of the 2024 election. Back on the campaign trail, now President-elect Donald Trump jumped on the crypto bandwagon, with promises to create a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, fight CBDCs, and defend the right to self-custody. However, the biggest catalyst seems to be his commitment to a favorable regulatory environment and vowing to eliminate “unclear” or “tough” laws that stifle the sector.
Next steps: Plans are underway to appoint a presidential advisory council to let the crypto industry “thrive,” and while there might be some legal tussling, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler may soon find himself out of the position (along with Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown). Trump’s sweep in the seven battleground states and the coming “red wave” that’s set to descend on Capitol Hill will mean that plans can be carried out, with many pro-crypto lawmakers soon to be found in the halls of Congress. The bullish sentiment has even propelled altcoins Cardano (ADA-USD) and Solana (SOL-USD), as well as meme coins like Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) and Shiba Inu (SHIB-USD), in a broad boost to the entire crypto sector.
It’ll all translate into better policy certainty, especially for Tier-1 banks, which will be more inclined to integrate crypto services and platforms into their businesses. That should also help more institutional investors come aboard, which can push prices even further via direct buying and a broader range of crypto ETFs. Remember, volatility is always going to be present in the cryptosphere, but history has shown the need for diamond hands to really win in the asset class.
Flashback: Trump wasn’t always that friendly to Bitcoin and was far from being an advocate. During his first term in office, he said crypto value was based on thin air, while connecting the digital assets to crime-riddled scams and threats to the U.S. dollar. Fast forward to the campaign cycle, and Trump was able to distinguish himself from the “anti-crypto crusade of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.” At the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in July, he laid out a plan to “ensure that the United States will be the crypto capital of the planet and bitcoin superpower of the world.”
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