Central bankers like to focus on core inflation readings, which strip out food and energy prices, but that doesn’t mean that they, or investors, will be able to ignore a renewed surge in crude-oil prices.
In a Thursday note, DataTrek Research observed that the correlation between energy prices and the core reading of the consumer-price index has returned to levels seen in the 1970s and 1980s. It stands at 0.62 since 2020, compared with an average of 0.68 in those prior decades, and well above its long-run average of 0.31….
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