3 Buyable Berkshire Dividend Dogs From May, Plus 6 To Watch

Foreword

Dan Burrows says in Kiplinger Investing:

“The Berkshire Hathaway portfolio is a diverse set of blue chips and, increasingly, lesser-known growth bets. Here’s a look at every stock picked by Warren Buffett and his lieutenants.”

Any collection of stocks is more clearly understood when subjected to yield-based (dogcatcher) analysis, this Buffett/Berkshire batch is perfect for the dogcatcher process. Here are the May 28 data for 25 dividend paying stocks in the Kiplinger-documented collection of 41 now owned by Warren Buffett through his Berkshire-Hathaway (BRK.A) firm.

Another resource consulted for this article was Dogs of the Dow, which also keeps an ongoing spreadsheet of the Buffett/Berkshire stocks updated quarterly per BRK SEC filings, the next of which reports in August.

A rapid market recovery, following the Ides of March 2020 plunge, made the possibility of owning productive dividend shares reflecting the Buffett collection unreachable for first-time investors.

This May 2024 update shows that the following two of the top ten dogs of Berkshire stocks by yield now live up to the dogcatcher ideal of paying annual dividends (from a $1K investment) exceeding their single share prices: The Kraft Heinz Co (KHC); Sirius XM (SIRI). One more outside the top ten is also ideal, Paramount Global (PARA).

Six more in the top ten by yield are within $18.23 or 34.85% of the ideal, Ally Financial (ALLY) is just $3.47 over-priced, Bank of America (BAC) is merely $8.35 high, Jeffries Financial Group Inc (JEF) is $11.29 removed, Citigroup (C) is $16.44 away, Coca-Cola (KO) needs to shed $17.77, and The Kroger Co (KR) can afford to drop $18.23 in bloated price to become ideal.

To run down the “safer” dividends of Buffett’s BRK April pack of dogs, check-out the Dividend Dog Catcher investing group site (by clicking on the last summary bullet above) after June 7.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 13.57% To 50.69% Net Gains For Ten Top BRK-Held Dividend Stocks Come May 2025

Five of these ten Buffett-held top dividend stocks by yield were also among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). Thus, this yield-based forecast for Buffett dogs was graded by Wall St. Wizards as 50% accurate.

Estimated-dividends from $1000 invested in each of these highest-yielding stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst median target-prices, as reported by YCharts, produced the data points for the projections below. (Note: one-year target prices by lone-analysts were not applied.) Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to May 28, 2025, were:

Sirius XM Holdings Inc was projected to net $506.86 based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 12 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 10% greater than the market as a whole.

The Kraft Heinz Co was projected to net $191.85, based on the median of target price estimates from 21 analysts plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 35% under the market as a whole.

Chevron Corp (CVX) netted $187.94 based on the median of estimates from 23 analysts, plus dividends. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 11% greater than the market as a whole.

Diageo PLC (DEO) was projected to net $156.96 based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 7 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 33% under the market as a whole.

Ally Financial Inc netted $154.76 based on the median of estimates from 18 analysts, plus dividends. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 39% greater than the market as a whole.

Lennar Corp (LEN) was projected to net $152.30 based on a median of target price estimates from 19 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 55% over the market as a whole.

Mastercard Inc (MA) was projected to net $151.87, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 36 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 8% over the market as a whole.

Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY) was projected to net $150.22, based on the median of target estimates from 21 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 64% greater than the market as a whole.

Aon PLC (AON) was projected to net $148.81, based on the median of target price estimates from 18 analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 9% less than the market as a whole.

T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS) was projected to net $135.67 based on a median of target price estimates from 27 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 52% under the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 19.37% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. These gain estimates were subject to average risk/volatility 6% over the market as a whole.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the “dog” moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as “dogs.” More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, “underdogs.”

41 BRK Holdings By Target Gains

25 BRK Picks By Yield

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): 10 Top BRK-Held Stocks By Yield Are The May Dogs of Berkshire-Hathaway

Top ten Buffett-held stocks selected 5/28/24 by yield represented four of eleven Morningstar sectors.

In first place was one of four consumer defensive sector representatives, The Kraft Heinz Co [1]. The other three placed sixth, seventh and tenth: Coca-Cola Co [6]; Diageo PLC [7], and The Kroger Co [10].

Then, in second place was the lone energy sector member, Chevron Corp [2] Third place went to one and a lone communication services representative, Sirius XM Holdings [3].

Finally, four from the financial services sector placed fourth, fifth, eighth, and ninth: Citigroup Inc [4], Ally Financial Inc [5], Jefferies Financial Group Inc [8], and Bank of America [9], to complete the April Buffett/BRK top ten dividend dogs.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Top-Ten May BRK Dogs Showed 13.51%-47.83% Price Upsides, While (31) One -0.27% Financial Services Downsider Trailed

To quantify top-dog rankings, analyst median price target estimates provided a “market sentiment” gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst median price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Forecast A 19.02% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced, Of 10 Top Berkshire Dividend Stocks To May 2025

Ten-top Berkshire dividend dogs were culled by yield for this update. Yield (dividend/price) results provided by YCharts did the ranking.

As noted above, the top ten Buffett-chosen dividend dogs screened 5/28/24 showing the highest dividend yields represented four of eleven Morningstar sectors.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Projected 5 Lowest-Priced Of The Top Ten Highest-Yield Berkshire Dogs (31) Delivering 20.10% Vs. (32) 16.89% Average Net Gains by All Ten Come May 28, 2025

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten dividend Buffett-selected kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 19.02% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The very lowest-priced selection, Sirius XM Holdings, was projected to deliver the best analyst-estimated net gain of 50.69%.

The five lowest-priced top-yield BRK stocks May 28 were: Sirius XM Holdings; The Kraft Heinz Co; Ally Financial Inc; Bank of America; Jefferies Financial Group Inc, with prices ranging from $2.76 to $45.89.

Five higher-priced Berkshire-backed dividend dogs as of May 28 were: The Kroger Co Inc; Coca-Cola Co; Citigroup Inc; Diageo PLC; Chevron Corp, whose prices ranged from $52.31 to $159.04.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O’Higgins’ “basic method” for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains, based on analyst targets, added a unique element of “market sentiment” gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 15% to 85% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 15% accurate on the degree of change (within 2.5%).

Afterword

If somehow you missed the suggestion of the four stocks ready for pick-up, and the six emerging ideal picks at the start of the article, here is a reprise of the list at the end:

This May 2024 update shows that the following three top dogs of Berkshire stocks now live up to the dogcatcher ideal of paying annual dividends (from a $1K investment) exceeding their single share prices.

One more is within $3.47 or 9.1% of the ideal, Ally Financial Inc. That stock shows the smallest price decrease that would pay dividends at the current payout level from $1k invested equal to its single share price.

To run-down all the “safer” dividends of Berkshire’s May pack of dogs, check-out the Dividend Dog Catcher investing group site (by clicking on the last summary bullet above) after June 7.

Price Drops or Dividend Increases Could Get All Ten Dogs of Berkshire Back to “Fair Price” Rates For Investors

The charts above retain the recent dividend amount and adjust share price to produce a yield (from $1K invested) to equal or exceed the single share price of each stock. As you can see, this illustration shows the two fair priced dogs in the top ten, plus eight out-of- bounds-priced stocks. The outliers need to trim prices between $4 and $78 to realize the 50/50 goal for share prices equalling dividend payouts from $10k invested.

The alternative, of course, would be for these companies to raise their dividends. That, of course, is a lot to ask in these highly disrupted, dollar-flooded, understaffed, short-supplied, inflationary, and pre-recession times.

Market action is the key. Mr. Market needs to drop up to 53% for all ten to become Berkshire Ideal dividend dogs.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor-in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of “dividends” from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Buffett/Berkshire batch stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.